IMF Gulf growth forecasts 2026: what investors should check
The IMF has cut its 2026 growth forecasts for Gulf economies because of the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
What changed in the IMF Gulf growth forecasts
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects the UAE economy will contract by 3.9 per cent in 2026. That is a 7 percentage point downgrade from its April forecast. The IMF forecasts a 7.7 per cent rebound in 2027, conditional on shipping routes normalising and the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are forecast to contract by 11.3 per cent, 16.7 per cent and 15.6 per cent, respectively, in 2026. Saudi Arabia is expected to contract by 3.3 per cent, while Oman is the only GCC member in the source with positive 2026 growth, at 4.1 per cent.
Newsletter
The corridor, every morning.
Funding rounds and cross-border capital moves, one email, five minutes.
The IMF’s forecast assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen in March 2027, with prewar conditions returning by October. It also assumes uncertainty will remain elevated throughout next year.
India’s 2026 growth forecast
The IMF forecasts India’s economy will grow by 7 per cent in 2026.
More in Policy
